The monsoon prediction model used by India Meteorological Department uses which of the following predictors for monsoon forecast?

1) Minimum Temperatures over North-west India

2) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula

3) El-Nino

a. 2, 3

b. 1, 3

c. 1, 2

d. All of the above

ANSWER: 1, 2

Explanation:

Since 2005, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days. The model uses the following six predictors:

Minimum Temperatures over North-west India,

Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula,

Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea,

Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean,

upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and

Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over the south-west Pacific region.